Updated modelling suggests around 242,000 new infections could occur across the EU27 by 2030 without increased prevention efforts.
The 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) have committed to the global UNAIDS targets and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3 and aim to eliminate HIV transmission by 2030 (1,2). Despite decades of progress, the EU27 are unlikely to meet the 2030 goal, according to new modelling from Aquarius Population Health.
Our analysis estimates that 242,000 new HIV infections could occur across the EU27 between 2025 and 2030 if prevention efforts remain at current levels. Our findings also highlight the issue of persistent delays in diagnosis. Of the projected new infections, only 107,000 (44%) are expected to be diagnosed by 2030, with the rest diagnosed after 2030.
The economic burden of these infections is substantial. We estimated the lifetime costs for the new infections acquired between 2025 and 2030 will be between €49.8 billion and €153.0 billion across the EU27. While the short-term (2025-2030) HIV treatment and care costs for all people living with HIV were projected to be €48.8 billion to €78.7 billion.
Our findings suggest that the EU27 is not on track to achieve the SDG 3.3 for HIV by 2030 without further investment in proactive interventions.
Investing in prevention now will provide long-term benefits, beyond the political time horizon of the 2030 goal, through a significant reduction of future transmissions, improved early diagnosis, and decreased health and economic burden of HIV on individuals, the healthcare system and society as a whole (3).
This work was commissioned and funded by Gilead Sciences and carried out independently by Aquarius Population Health.
To learn more about our work at Aquarius, please visit our website or email us at info@aquariusph.com
Article by Alice McGreevy
References
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Progress towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goal 3.3 related to HIV, TB, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections in the EU/EEA [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 May 20]. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/hiv-tb-hepatitis-progress-sustainable-development-goal-2025
- United Nations. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. 2025 [cited 2025 Jul 1]. Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. Available from: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/
- Kuiper E, Brady D. European Policy Centre [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Aug 5]. Is the European Health Union ready for the challenges of the 21st cent. Available from: https://archive.epc.eu/en/Publications/Is-the-European-Health-Union-ready-for-the-challenges-of-the-21st-cent~53947c