Our new modelling study shows that Scotland and Ireland have already met UNAIDS HIV transmission elimination targets for their total populations. However, without further action, neither country will meet the 2030 goal for gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (GBMSM).
Aquarius Population Health modelled future HIV transmission in Scotland and Ireland to assess whether current prevention intervention levels are sufficient to meet the countries’ commitment to eliminate new HIV transmissions by 2030 (1-3).
Our analysis shows that both countries are already meeting the UNAIDS transmission elimination target (<1 new transmission annually per 10,000 population) for their total adult populations. They are also meeting the population-specific targets for heterosexual men, women, and people who inject drugs.
The picture is different for GBMSM, who are disproportionally affected by HIV. Although transmission in this group is declining in both countries, current intervention levels are not enough to reach the elimination target by 2030.
Our study also explored what could be achieved if prevention interventions were increased by a moderate, but realistic amount. Under this scenario, Scotland could reach the target for this group by 2030, while Ireland could do so by 2035.
Our findings highlight the progress both Scotland and Ireland have made towards the elimination goal. However, increased investment in a combination of prevention interventions is needed to achieve the goal for all population groups, in particular for GBMSM.
Additionally, while few new transmissions are occurring within both countries, annual diagnoses remain higher due to acquisitions outside the country. Continued investment in a combination of prevention interventions is needed to achieve the goals and provide support for affected individuals, which should be considered as part of the countries’ action plans.
References:
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Progress towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goals related to HIV, viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted infections and tuberculosis in the EU/EEA: 2024 progress report: 2024 progress report (2022−2023 data). [Internet]. LU: Publications Office; 2025 [cited 2025 Oct 30]. Available from: https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2900/8145794
- Ending HIV Transmission in Scotland by 2030: HIV Transmission Elimination Delivery Plan 2023-26 [Internet]. Scottish Government; 2024. Available from: https://www.gov.scot/publications/ending-hiv-transmission-scotland-2030-hiv-transmission-elimination-delivery-plan-2023-26/
- Programme for Government 2025: Securing Ireland’s Future [Internet]. Department of the Taoiseach; 2025 [cited 2025 Oct 30]. Available from: https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-the-taoiseach/publications/programme-for-government-2025-securing-irelands-future/
Article by Ellie Moran
McGreevy A, Bates L, Yajamin R. How can Scotland and Ireland achieve HIV transmission elimination? Aquarius Population Health. June 2, 2026. Available here: https://aquariusph.com/reports/how-can-scotland-and-ireland-achieve-hiv-transmission-elimination/