Aquarius Population Health presented new modelling research at the Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) 2026 in Denver, Colorado, February 22-25, examining whether Scotland and Ireland are on course to eliminate new HIV transmissions by 2030.
Both countries have committed to meeting the UNAIDS target of fewer than one new infection acquired within the country per 10,000 population per year (1-3). Prevention efforts have expanded in recent years, including increased access to PrEP and expanding HIV testing services in new settings (2,4).
Current data indicate Scotland and Ireland have already achieved the UNAIDS HIV transmission elimination targets for their total population, as well as among heterosexual men, women, and people who inject drugs. However, our modelling suggests that for GBMSM, neither country is expected to meet the 2030 target under current intervention levels.
We predict that with “moderate” increases in intervention levels among GBMSM, both countries can achieve elimination in the near future.
Our findings highlight the progress both Scotland and Ireland have made towards the elimination goal. However, increased investment in a combination of prevention interventions is needed to achieve the goal for all population groups and provide support for affected individuals.
Read the full poster here.
Poster citation: McGreevy A, Yajamín-Villamarín R, Bates L, et al. When will Scotland and Ireland achieve HIV transmission elimination? Modelling the impact of current prevention efforts on progress towards the 2030 UNAIDS goal. Conference on Retroviruses and Opportunistic Infections (CROI) 2026, 22nd-25th February 2026, Colorado, USA.
References:
- European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Progress towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goals related to HIV, viral hepatitis, sexually transmitted infections and tuberculosis in the EU/EEA: 2024 progress report:
2024 progress report (2022−2023 data). [Internet]. LU: Publications Office; 2025 [cited 2025 Oct 30]. Available from: https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2900/8145794 - Ending HIV Transmission in Scotland by 2030: HIV Transmission Elimination Delivery Plan 2023-26 [Internet]. Scottish Government; 2024. Available from: https://www.gov.scot/publications/ending-hiv-transmission-scotland-2030-hiv-transmission-elimination-delivery-plan-2023-26/
- Programme for Government 2025: Securing Ireland’s Future [Internet]. Department of the Taoiseach; 2025 [cited 2025 Oct 30]. Available from: https://www.gov.ie/en/department-of-the-taoiseach/publications/programme-for-government-2025-securing-irelands-future/
- HSE-Health Protection Surveillance Centre [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2026 Jan 21]. Update on Epidemiology of HIV in Ireland, to the end of 2022. Available from: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/hivandaids/hivdataandreports/2022reports/title-23563-en.html