Aquarius Population Health

Menu
Menu

EU27 Status Towards 2030 HIV Transmission Elimination, 2026 report

The 27 countries of the European Union (EU27) have committed to the global UNAIDS targets and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3 (1,2). Many aim to achieve zero new HIV transmissions by 2030, often defined by a 95% reduction in transmissions since 2010 (1). Despite recent efforts to expand prevention interventions, there has only been a 35% reduction in new HIV diagnoses since 2010 in the EU/EEA (1) and, each year, approximately 25,000 new HIV diagnoses continue to be reported (3). We used an HIV transmission model to estimate the number of new HIV infections from 2025 through 2030 if current intervention levels stay the same. We also estimate the short- and long-term economic consequences of these new infections. This report updates the analysis presented in the ‘Modelling Report: EU27 Status Towards HIV Transmission Elimination’, published in September 2025 (4), to incorporate the latest ECDC data (November 2025 report) (5).
Download Report
15th April 2026
Funded by: Gilead Sciences

Key Takeaways

  • Our modelling predicts that approximately 242,000 (estimated range 197,000 to 435,000) new HIV infections (diagnosed and undiagnosed) are expected to occur across the EU27 between 2025 and 2030 if intervention levels remain unchanged.
  • This suggests that the EU27 is not on track to achieve the SDG 3.3 for HIV by 2030 without further investment in proactive interventions.
  • By 2030, only around 107,000 (44%) of these new infections are expected to be diagnosed, reflecting persistent delays in testing and late diagnosis across many countries.
  • The lifetime healthcare costs of these 242,000 newly acquired HIV transmissions are estimated to be €49.8 billion to €153.0 billion, including the treatment and management costs over the long-term.
  • The immediate (2025-2030) health costs for all people with HIV across the EU27 countries are estimated to be €48.8 billion to €78.7 billion, including existing and new diagnoses.
  • The predicted rise in new infections and subsequent healthcare costs highlight the need for a coordinated EU27-level approach with reaffirmed political commitment and sustained, strategic financing to achieve transmission elimination across the region.

We used an HIV transmission model to estimate the number of new HIV infections within the EU27 countries, from 2025 through 2030, if current intervention levels stay the same. We also estimate the short- and long-term economic consequences of these new infections. Model results indicate that 242,000 (197,000 to 435,000) new infections are expected to occur by 2030 within the EU27. By 2030, approximately 44% (37% to 49%) of these new infections will be diagnosed, while the remaining infections will be diagnosed later. The associated HIV care costs for all people living with HIV across the EU27 between 2025 and 2030 are predicted to be €48.8 billion to €78.7 billion between 2025 and 2030. The lifetime costs of 242,000 new infections acquired between 2025 through 2030 are estimated at €49.8 billion to €153.0 billion.

Our findings suggest that the EU27 is not on track to achieve the SDG 3.3 for HIV by 2030 without further investment in proactive interventions.

HIV remains an important cross-border health issue across the EU27 and beyond. A coordinated EU27-level approach with reaffirmed political commitment and sustained, strategic financing is needed to achieve transmission elimination across the region.

Investing in prevention now will provide long-term benefits, beyond the political time horizon of the 2030 goal, through a significant reduction of future transmissions, improved early diagnosis, and decreased health and economic burden of HIV on individuals, the healthcare system and society as a whole (6).

This work was commissioned and funded by Gilead Sciences. The analysis was conducted independently by Aquarius Population Health.

Citation: Bates L, McGreevy A, Robinson E, Polokaova A, Adams E. Modelling Report: EU27 status towards 2030 HIV transmission elimination, 2026 report. Aquarius Population Health. April 15, 2026. https://aquariusph.com/reports/eu27-status-towards-2030-hiv-transmission-elimination-2026-report/

References:

  1. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Progress towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goal 3.3 related to HIV, TB, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections in the EU/EEA [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 May 20]. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/hiv-tb-hepatitis-progress-sustainable-development-goal-2025
  2. United Nations. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. 2025 [cited 2025 Jul 1]. Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. Available from: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/
  3. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, World Health Organization. HIV/AIDS surveillance in Europe 2025: 2024 data [Internet]. SE: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2025 [cited 2026 Feb 9]. (HIV/AIDS surveillance in Europe). Available from: https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2900/4004490
  4. Bates L, Polokaova A, Adams E. Modelling Report: The European Union’s status towards HIV transmission elimination [Internet]. Aquarius Population Health; 2025 Sep [cited 2026 Feb 8]. Report No. Available from: https://aquariusph.com/reports/modelling-report-the-european-unions-status-towards-hiv-transmission-elimination/
  5. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Progress report on the continuum of HIV care, 2025 (2024 data) [Internet]. SE: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2025 [cited 2026 Feb 6]. Available from: https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2900/1305059
  6. Kuiper E, Brady D. European Policy Centre [Internet]. 2023 [cited 2025 Aug 5]. Is the European Health Union ready for the challenges of the 21st cent. Available from: https://archive.epc.eu/en/Publications/Is-the-European-Health-Union-ready-for-the-challenges-of-the-21st-cent~53947c
Download Report