Modelling the impact of current HIV prevention efforts on progress towards the 2030 elimination goal.
In 2019, the previous UK government set the ambitious target of eliminating HIV transmission within England by 2030 with the current government affirming their commitment to the goal in their 2024 manifesto and commissioning a new HIV action plan in England (1,2). While great progress has been made in HIV prevention and treatment in England, with England reaching the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target in 2023 (3), past evidence suggested that the goal of ‘elimination’ by 2030 is unlikely to be met for Gay, Bisexual, and other Men who have Sex with Men (GBMSM) if prevention interventions remain at current levels (4–6). No research has been done to evaluate this question for other groups, such as women. We expand on previous modelling work by analysing transmissions for other groups (GBMSM, heterosexual men, women, and people who inject drugs) and using more recent data to capture England’s increased prevention intervention efforts, including expanding the use of PrEP and introducing ED opt-out HIV screening in high-prevalence areas. Additionally, we assessed the impact on Black African heterosexual men and women as subgroups.
Our modelling study provides new evidence that while great progress has been made in HIV prevention and treatment, a substantial increase in prevention efforts is needed to meet the HIV Commission elimination goal. No single intervention will be sufficient to achieve the goal, and increasing investment in a combination of prevention interventions is necessary.
Acknowledgements: This work was commissioned and funded by Gilead Sciences. The work was carried out independently by Aquarius Population Health.
Link to publication: https://aquariusph.com/reports/how-can-england-achieve-hiv-transmission-elimination-modelling-the-impact-of-current-hiv-prevention-efforts-on-progress-towards-the-2030-elimination-goal/
References
- Department of Health and Social Care. Let’s pledge to do our part to end HIV. Jan 2019. Accessed August 2024 www.gov.uk/government/speeches
- Department of Health and Social Care. Towards Zero: the HIV Action Plan for England – 2022 to 2025. December 2021 www.gov.uk/government/publications
- Aquarius PH. When will the UK achieve HIV transmission elimination? Modelling the impact of current HIV prevention efforts on progress towards the 2030 elimination goal. May 2025 https://aquariusph.com/portfolio/when-will-the-uk-achieve-hiv-transmission-elimination-modelling-the-impact-of-current-hiv-prevention-efforts-on-progress-towards-the-2030-elimination-goal/
- Cambiano et al, Lancet HIV 2023; 10: e713–22. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37923485/
- McCormack et al, Lancet 2016; 387: 53–60 Online paper
- UKHSA. HIV testing, PrEP, new HIV diagnoses and care outcomes for people accessing HIV services: 2023 report. Updated 6 October 2023. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics
To learn more about our work at Aquarius, please visit our website or email us at info@aquariusph.com
Article by Laurel Bates – September 2025