Aquarius Population Health presented new modelling research at the BHIVA BASSH joint conference 2026, 27th -29th April, estimating the additional number of people that may need to receive PrEP between 2026 and 2030 to help England meet its 2030 HIV transmission elimination goal.
England has committed to ambitious HIV transmission elimination targets by 20301. Although HIV prevention efforts have contributed to substantial reductions in new transmissions in recent years, there remains uncertainty about the level of additional intervention required to meet the national goals.
Our new modelling results estimate the how many additional HIV transmissions would need to be prevented in England to meet the country’s 2030 HIV transmission elimination goals, and the potential scale of additional Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake required to achieve this.
We estimate that approximately 3,100 HIV transmissions would need to be prevented between 2026 and 2030 to meet England’s HIV transmission elimination goals. To achieve this reduction through increased PrEP uptake alone, we estimate around 60,500 additional people may need to receive PrEP.
The largest estimated increases in PrEP uptake were among heterosexual men and women (29,400 and 26,700, respectively), suggesting that future HIV prevention efforts may need to expand beyond existing sexual health service models and populations currently accessing PrEP.
Our estimates do not present the complete population that could benefit from PrEP. Recent evidence estimated ~389,000 individuals have an unmet PrEP need in England, 94.5% of whom did not attend sexual health services2. Unmet need was highest among heterosexual women and men. Our findings highlight the potential importance of broadening access to HIV prevention services if England is to achieve its HIV elimination ambitions. Expanding outreach beyond sexual health services and using a combination of prevention strategies are essential to reach the goal.
Read the full poster here.
This work was commissioned and funded by Gilead Sciences and carried out independently by Aquarius Population Health.
References:
- Build an NHS fit for the future. The Labour Party [Internet]. [cited 2026 Mar 2]. Available from: https://labour.org.uk/change/build-an-nhs-fit-for-the-future/
- Huntington SE, Bates L, Coukan F, Adams EJ. Estimating the number of people who could benefit from HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in England and the unmet need. Sex Transm Infect. 2025 Nov 17;101(8):506–12. doi:10.1136/sextrans-2024-056456 PubMed PMID: 40619164; PubMed Central PMCID: PMC12703335
Citation: Bates L, McGreevy A. Estimating the number of individuals who need to receive PrEP to meet England’s 2030 HIV transmission elimination goals. Poster presentation. Aquarius Population Health, London, UK. 2026.
To learn more about our work in HIV prevention, epidemiological modelling and public health strategy, please visit our website or email us at info@aquariusph.com.