Aquarius Population Health

Menu
Menu

Modelling Report: The European Union’s status towards HIV transmission elimination

The countries of the European Union (EU) have committed to achieving the global UNAIDS targets and the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.3 (1,2–4). These goals aim to significantly reduce new infections, expand access to prevention tools such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and ensure equitable access to testing and care, particularly in key populations. Many countries aim to achieve zero new HIV transmissions by 2030, often defined by a 95% reduction in transmissions since 2010 (5). Despite these efforts, approximately 25,000 new HIV diagnoses occur each year in the EU/EEA (1,6), and more than 50% of these diagnoses are considered late stage (CD4 count < 350) (6,7). We used an HIV transmission model to estimate the number of new HIV infections 2025-2030 if current intervention levels stay the same. We also estimate the short- and long-term economic consequences of these new infections.
Download Report
19th September 2025
Funded by: Gilead Sciences

Key Takeaways

  • Our modelling predicts that between 2025-2030, there will be 544,000 new infections across the EU27, in the absence of increased intervention.
  • Our findings suggest that, without additional interventions, the EU27 will not meet the SDG 3.3 target of a 95% reduction in HIV infections from 2010 levels by 2030, as incidence is projected to rise from 2025-2030, rather than fall. Additionally, many of these new infections will be diagnosed post-2030.
  • The immediate (2025-2030) healthcare costs for all people with HIV across the EU27 are estimated to be €54,8 billion – €88,4 billion, including existing and new diagnoses.
  • The estimated lifetime healthcare costs of these new HIV transmissions are at €109,6 billion – €336,5 billion, including the treatment and management costs over the long- term.
  • The estimated rise in new infections and subsequent healthcare costs requires proactive interventions, placing prevention at the centre of HIV response strategies.

Our modelling study assesses the progress toward the HIV transmission elimination goals based on the current status of the UNAIDS targets across the EU. In this study, we adapted a previously published HIV transmission model (8) to estimate the total number of new HIV infections, both diagnosed and undiagnosed, that would happen between 2025 and 2030 if interventions continue at current levels. We also quantify the potential short and long–term economic consequences in the absence of further intervention.

Model results indicate that 544,000 new infections (both undiagnosed and diagnosed) are expected to occur by 2030 within the EU27. This trajectory suggests that the SDG of “zero HIV transmission” will not be met by 2030, given current levels of intervention.

HIV care costs across the EU27 are predicted to be € 54,8 billion – € 88,4 billion by 2030, with lifetime costs of new infections estimated at € 109,6 billion – € 336,5 billion, including treatment and management costs. Our findings suggest that the EU is not on track to achieve the SDG 3.3 for HIV by 2030, and the estimated rise in new infections and subsequent healthcare costs requires proactive interventions, placing prevention at the centre of HIV response strategies.

This work was commissioned and funded by Gilead Sciences. The work was carried out independently by Aquarius Population Health.

 

References:

 

  1. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). Progress towards reaching the Sustainable Development Goal 3.3 related to HIV, TB, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections in the EU/EEA [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 May 20]. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/hiv-tb-hepatitis-progress-sustainable-development-goal-2025
  2. International AIDS Society (IAS) I. Reaching the 95-95-95 targets: The importance of multi-stakeholder collaboration [Internet]. Available from: https://www.iasociety.org/sites/default/files/CPP/IAS-CPP-Key-considerations.pdf
  3. 2025 AIDS Targets: 2025 Target setting and 2020-2030 resource needs and impact estimation. 2025 [cited 2025 May 8]. 2025 AIDS TARGETS. Available from: https://www.unaids.org/en/topics/2025_target_setting
  4. United Nations. United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. 2025 [cited 2025 Jul 1]. Goal 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages. Available from: https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/health/
  5. Recommended 2030 targets for HIV [Internet]. [cited 2025 May 26]. Available from: https://www.unaids.org/en/recommended-2030-targets-for-hiv
  6. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). HIV/AIDS Surveillance in Europe 2024 – 2023 data [Internet]. 2024 [cited 2025 May 8]. Available from: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/hiv-aids-surveillance-europe-2024-2023-data
  7. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition (AVAC). Rapid Assessment on Access to PrEP in EU/EEA Countries, 2022 [Internet]. AIDS ACTION EUROPE; 2023 Mar [cited 2025 May 8]. Available from: https://www.prepwatch.org/resources/rapid-assessment-on-access-to-prep-in-eu-eea-countries-2022/
  8. Massey K, Vardanega V, Chaponda M, Eddowes LA, Hearmon N. Investigating zero transmission of HIV in the MSM population: a UK modelling case study. Arch Public Health. 2023 Nov 20;81(1):201.
Download Report